2011 Forum Probabilistic Safety Analysis & Human Factors Assessment

8-9 September 2011; The Park Royal Hotel, Warrington, UK

“Excellent discussions, very informative…”

“Fabulous event, I learned so much…”

“Brilliant format and venue – thank you very much CRA…”

“I particularly liked the Fukushima link, excellent forum, and free too…”

Th 2011 forum followed on from the previous year’s inaugural event expanded to two days. It was well attended by 95 delegates representing 23 organisations. The forum was favourably received with lots of positive feedback. Delegates felt it was informative and were able to enter into frank and open discussions. The dinner was also well received as a useful networking opportunity.

CRA aims to establish the forum as a regular annual event allowing issues and developments within the PSA/HFA fields to be freely discussed and promoted as well as providing a voice for the PSA/HFA community.

The main aims and how they are being fulfilled were articulated by CRA Managing Director Jasbir Sidhu, as being:

Establish the UK’s Nuclear Industry’s voice for PSA/HFA:

The second forum has successfully built upon the 2010 event with increased attendance and helping to establish it as “the voice” within the industry

Disseminate information on the latest techniques and developments in PSA/HFA:

Developments and alternative models were discussed relating to CRA’s Common Cause Failure Modelling lecture. Suzanne Flynn’s talk on Software Reliability proved to be particularly engaging on a subject not currently well understood within the PSA/HFA community.

An overview of the lectures (as well as lecture slides for some) follows:

Fukushima: Lessons to be Learned - Geoff Grint, HM Principal Inspector, Office for Nuclear Regulation, Health and Safety Executive

This presentation covered the lessons learned from the accident at Fukushima drawing on the ONR Fukushima Report, now complete. You may also wish to review the Report of Japanese Government to the IAEA Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety (linked).

Common Cause Failure Modelling in UK PSAs - Nadim Choudhary, Consultant and Dr Charles Shepherd, Chief Consultant, Corporate Risk Associates Ltd

This presentation covered the modelling of Common Cause Failure (CCF) in the PSAs for Nuclear Power Plants in the UK. Current methods for modelling CCFs were discussed as well as possible alternatives and developments.

For a copy of the Common Cause Failure Modelling presentation please contact Nadim Choudhary at CRA: nchoudhary@c-risk-a.co.uk.

Software Reliability, the Silent Danger and How to Assess it - Suzanne Flynn, Head of Software Safety & Reliability Assessment Group, Cygnet Solutions Ltd

Suzanne explained the various causes of software errors, how to prevent them and explained why software reliability cannot be measured or estimated.

Please click here for a copy of the Software Reliability presentation.

Incorporating Reliability Figures for Programmable Control and Instrumentation Systems into PSAs - John Delafield, Nuclear Safety Engineer, Safety & Regulation Division, Barnwood, EDF Energy

The presentation touched on various issues including: 'level of confidence' in reliability data, treatment of CCFs and human reliability aspects.

IAEA Insights for PSA Methodology from the Fukushima Accident – Dr Charles Shepherd, Chief Consultant, Corporate Risk Associates Ltd

The presentation outlined the work carried out by the IAEA’s Safety Assessment Team at Fukushima and lessons learned from the Fukushima accident.

Please click here for a copy of Dr Charles Shepherd's Insights report.

Strengthening EDF's MERMOS HRA Technique for EPR Application - Pierre Le Bot, Expert Research Engineer, EDF Research & Development, EDF

Pierre, as one of the leading researchers in the HRA area, assess emergency operations of nuclear reactors during incidents and accidents for PSA, discussed the MERMOS method and current improvements for the EPR design.

Earthquakes and NPPs in Japan: Seismological Insights, Seismic Hazard and PSA Implications - Professor Willy Aspinall, Aspinall & ssociates Ltd and Bristol University

In an extremely well received and eye opening presentation Willy highlighted some of the emerging issues and new challenges for seismic hazard estimation in the wake of the catastrophic events at the Fukushima.

Please click here for a copy of the Earthquakes and NPPs in Japan presentation.