IET International Conference presentation on Bayesian analysis techniques
Ashraf El-Shanawany, CRA Graduate Consultant, has written a technical paper analysing two different Bayesian paradigms for parameter estimation. This paper was presented in the IET International System Safety Conference in October 2010. The paper reviews Bayesian analysis techniques which are the PSA standard for updating reliability parameter estimates. Monte Carlo simulation has been used to create data on theoretical plant component failures as a test bed for comparing the accuracy of different methods. Ashraf observed that “the stochastic nature of component failures, and the high degree of sensitivity to rare events are overriding factors in determining the accuracy of results, and should be further explored.”
CRA’s Managing Director, Jasbir Sidhu, observed that “CRA is pleased to be presenting at the IET Conference as this demonstrates the consultancy’s desire to lead in the development of knowledge methods and techniques for analysing risk in high-hazard industries. Well done Ash.”
For a full copy of the paper, email Ashraf at ashanawany@c-risk-a.co.uk
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